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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-05 10:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Satellite imagery, along with Mexican surface and radar data, shows that the center of Earl is now near the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen. The associated convection is poorly organized, although radar data shows bands of low-topped showers that are not currently apparent in infrared imagery. There are no recent observations near the area of maximum winds over the Bay of Campeche, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is 285/10. A large mid-level ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should lead to a continued west-northwestward to westward motion for the next 48 hours or so, with this motion taking the center of Earl along the coast of the Bay of Campeche into mainland Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just north of the various consensus models. The center of Earl should emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today before final landfall in mainland Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not expected due to the proximity to land and the current level of disorganization. After landfall, Earl should weaken and dissipate over the mountains of central and eastern Mexico. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/0600Z 18.7N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1800Z 18.9N 97.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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