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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-08-06 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060243 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico. Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of the consensus model, TVCN. The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning across portions of south-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ 12H 06/1200Z 19.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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