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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-04 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041436 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Earl is already well inland over northern Guatemala, and although visible satellite images still show a vigorous circulation, the convection is rapidly decreasing. There are no wind observations near the center, but the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45 kt. Since most of the circulation of Earl is forecast to move over the high terrain of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, rapid weakening is anticipated. Earl is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression tonight and into a remnant low in a day or so. Earl has been moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of a ridge, and given that the steering flow is not expected to change, a continued westward track is anticipated for the next day or two. This forecast motion over land reduces the chances of reintensification in the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Despite the current weakening, Earl is capable of producing very heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 18.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 19.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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