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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-15 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Microwave images during the evening indicate that Enrique's circulation is tilted with the low-level center located near the southern portion of the main convective mass. This is due to moderate south-southwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model and a UW/CIMSS shear analysis. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The moderate southerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual weakening during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/8 kt. The storm should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge during the next day or two. After 48 hours, the large circulation of Hurricane Dolores is expected to cause the steering currents to weaken over the far eastern Pacific. This should result in a reduction in Enrique's forward speed, and a southward drift later in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, and has been adjusted a little westward thereafter, to be in better agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.8N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.3N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.9N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 19.3N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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