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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-13 16:53:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 Enrique's convective structure consists of a large band that wraps about halfway around the cyclone in its southern semicircle. Unlike the convectively uninhibited nature of Tropical Storm Dolores to its east, the showers and thunderstorm activity of Enrique have warmer cloud tops and the band is somewhat fragmented. As the TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications remain unchanged at 2.5, the intensity for Enrique remains 35 kt. It appears that Enrique will continue to be convectively challenged as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to 10-15 kt out of the south in about two days, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after about two days and the system becoming a remnant low in about five days. The official intensity forecast is closest to the GHMI dynamical model - the model that anticipates the most development - but the NHC prediction represents a modest reduction from the forecast issued previously. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt, primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a west-northwestward turn, which the cyclone has stubbornly resisted thus far. Once such a turn does materialize, Enrique should move toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for about three to four days. After that time, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement should decrease as the steering flow weakens. The official track forecast is north of the consensus at 12 and 24 hours due to the continued right-of-track movement currently occurring and then close to the TVCN multi-model consensus thereafter. This NHC prediction is consistently north of that from the previous advisory because of the continued unanticipated northerly movement of Enrique currently. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.9N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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