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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-08-27 16:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271453 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE BORDER OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER OF HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 63.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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