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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-08-25 04:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) X(32) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) X(35) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) X(41) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 9(38) X(38) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 4(48) X(48) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 2(44) X(44) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 33(50) 1(51) 1(52) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 1(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 21(37) 1(38) X(38) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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