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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-08-28 10:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 280845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 6(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 5(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 4(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 4(27) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 4(30) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 2(32) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) 1(36) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) 1(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) 1(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 2(30) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 3(31) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 4(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 5(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 6(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 4(24) 1(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) 1(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 8(35) 1(36) 1(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND TURK 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 54(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 29 25(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SANTO DOMINGO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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