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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-30 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is even more separated from the main convection than earlier today, while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated. This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of cooler waters. Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt. The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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