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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-29 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Emilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite images show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a large mass of deep convection. The center has become a little more exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged from this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. Although the shear is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually decreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated during that time. By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the 26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, which should initiate weakening. Dry air and cool waters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Emilia should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge. After weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official foreast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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