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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-10-12 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120855 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 The area of cold cloud tops associated with Fay has expanded overnight, but radar imagery from Bermuda indicate that the overall convective structure of the cyclone has not changed much. Surface observations and the radar data show that the center of Fay has passed over the island within the past hour. Subsequently, a minimum pressure of 986 mb was reported at Bermuda airport observing station. The initial wind speed remains 60 kt and is based on the earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the 06z Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Fay is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical. The global models now keep the post-tropical cyclone a distinct feature along the frontal zone a little longer, so the new NHC forecast delays dissipation until around 48 hours. Fay has not turned quite as sharp as predicted. The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward or 015/17 kt. Fay should turn northeastward later this morning, and then accelerate north-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the Atlantic tonight through Monday. The updated NHC track is a little north of the previous track and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 32.4N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 34.2N 61.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 35.8N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 36.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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