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Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 14
2024-09-12 04:47:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 032 WTNT31 KNHC 120247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE-FORCE OCCURRING IN METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 90.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings west of Intracoastal City have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning west of Avery Island has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Avery Island Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower north-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Gusts to hurricane-force have been occurring in the New Orleans area. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through early Thursday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-8 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2024-09-12 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 02:39:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 02:39:22 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-12 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge. Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and lies near the various consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies near HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics