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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-07 04:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 Last-light visible satellite pictures from GOES-13 and GOES-16 indicated that the low-level circulation of the disturbance had become better defined and was located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. NOAA Buoy 42057, located about 90 n mi northeast of the center, has reported peak 1-minute winds around 35 kt during the past few hours and a gust to 43 kt. Because the system has developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, it is now classified as a tropical storm. Franklin becomes the sixth tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The upper-level outflow is beginning to expand over the western portion of the circulation, indicating that the shear over the system is decreasing. The global models are predicting that Franklin will remain in a low-shear environment during the next several days, and the only limiting factor for intensification appears to be land interaction. Additional strengthening is expected before the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 24 hours. After the system moves over the Bay of Campeche, warm waters and favorable upper-level winds should allow for restrengthening, and although not explicitly indicated in the official forecast, Franklin could become a hurricane before it makes final landfall in mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast is closest to the higher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the intensity consensus and HCCA models after that time. The initial motion estimate is 295/11. Franklin is forecast to move west-northwestward during the next several days to the south of a mid-level ridge that should remain in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The track model guidance has trended slightly southward after 48 hours, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The NHC forecast remains near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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