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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-14 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 A 13/2045 UTC CSA RADARSAT Constellation Mission VH polarization image indicated that Gordon's surface center was farther east than previously indicated. Subsequently, the surface center has become more obscured while the convective mass has expanded somewhat over the western portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows the westerly shear gradually diminishing through the period, the dry, stable thermodynamic surrounding environment is expected to be the primary inhibiting parameter. Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low around mid-period, although not shown explicitly in the NHC forecast. Beyond day 3, the official forecast shows gradual re-strengthening while atmospheric conditions become less hostile. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and based on the IVCN intensity consensus and below the Decay SHIPS statistical guidance. Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 280/8 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the Azores. The cyclone should continue slowly toward the west to west-southwest during the next 72 hours. Afterward, a break in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough. As Gordon approaches this growing weakness in the ridge, the cyclone should turn toward the northwest and north. This forecast track scenario, however, assumes that the cyclone strengthens toward the end of the period. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast beyond day 3 was made to lie closer to the TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-14 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 13 the center of Gordon was located near 19.8, -40.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 11
2024-09-14 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 40.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 40.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics