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Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-09-01 19:08:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 011708 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 Reports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the extent of tropical-storm-force winds has increased significantly in the eastern semicircle. This requires an extension of the tropical storm warning southward along both Florida coasts. This Special Advisory is being issued to modify the warnings, and to update the analyzed and forecast wind radii. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track. Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the center. 2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend. It is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1700Z 27.8N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 29.0N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 33.1N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 38.0N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z 38.5N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch/Franklin
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