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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-08-26 10:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 759 WTPZ43 KNHC 260832 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hector has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center located near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection as seen in microwave images. The latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT-C pass showed a swath of 35-40 kt winds to the east of the center. Based on all of this information, the initial intensity is again held at 40 kt. The storm is moving westward (280 degrees) at 8 kt, and a continued relatively slow westward to west-northwestward motion should persist for another day or two. Thereafter, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. There is some along-track spread in the guidance, but most of the models show a similar theme. Little change was made to the previous NHC track, and this one lies fairly close to the various consensus models. Hector is currently experiencing some northerly wind shear. The shear should decrease a little during the next couple of days, which could allow Hector to gain some strength. However, the strengthening will likely be tempered due to Hector passing over Gilma's cool wake. As Hector nears the central Pacific basin in a few days, the models show the storm moving into a region of stronger shear and drier air, which should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce weakening. The NHC forecast shows Hector becoming a remnant low by day 5, but most of the global models depict this transition occurring sooner than that. The intensity forecast is nudged downward from the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.6N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.0N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.4N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.7N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 17.8N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 17.9N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.0N 146.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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