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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-08-27 16:45:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271445 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector has become less organized during the past 12-24 hours. The center is now located near the western edge of a ragged convective mass. Objective and subjective T-numbers have decreased and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of these estimates. The environment ahead of Gilma does not look conducive. Moderate westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea surface temperatures should cause gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Hector will be moving over the cool wake of Gilma and this could result in a faster rate of weakening than indicated below. The system is now forecast to become a remnant low in about 60 hours, and dissipate by day 4. Hector is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A turn to the west is expected during the next day or so as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hector. The latest NHC track forecast is near or slightly north of the previous forecast due to a more northward initial position, but it still lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics