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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-25 04:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Helene continues to become better organized with increased convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although this may be conservative. Although the storm has been wobbling over the past few hours, center fixes from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a generally west-northwestward motion at around 300/9 kt. Helene should turn northwestward soon as a high pressure area over Florida shifts eastward, with the tropical cyclone center passing near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a mid-tropospheric trough is digging over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Helene to turn northward with an increase in forward speed during the next day or so. An accelerating northward to north-northeastward motion over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should take the system to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 48 hours. After landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around a mid-level low over the south-central United States. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one and is on top of the latest corrected consensus track guidance. Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus, significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices. Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area on Thursday. 4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Helene Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-25 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 02:55:50 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-25 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 250255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 X 10(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 19(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 39(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 56(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 73(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 56(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 17(74) X(74) X(74) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 11(77) X(77) X(77) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 16(48) X(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 65(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 68(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 37(59) X(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 54 11(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) COZUMEL MX 50 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) COZUMEL MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 80 10(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 35 29(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 10(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics