je.st
news
Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-25 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 250255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 X 10(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 19(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 39(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 56(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 73(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 56(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 17(74) X(74) X(74) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 11(77) X(77) X(77) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 16(48) X(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 65(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 68(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 37(59) X(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 54 11(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) COZUMEL MX 50 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) COZUMEL MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 80 10(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 35 29(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 10(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-25 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.9, -85.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 7
2024-09-25 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Wednesday night over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics