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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-09-16 10:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Cloud tops have warmed near the center of Ian overnight, but the cloud pattern in geostationary imagery still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. A small mid-level eye and a banding convective structure are also seen in a 0417 UTC AMSR-2 overpass from GCOM-W1. The initial intensity is set to 50 kt based on the latest ST3.0 classification from TAFB and the fast forward speed of the cyclone, which now exceeds 40 kt. Ian should become extratropical within 12 hours and then be absorbed by another front near or northeast of Iceland in about 48 hours, as indicated by the latest ECMWF and UKMET model solutions. The AMSR-2 pass mentioned above and a 0544 UTC SSM/I pass were helpful in locating the low-level center of Ian, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 040/42. The cyclone should continue moving quickly northeastward ahead of a large upper-level trough until it is absorbed. The new NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the tightly clustered global model guidance. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 45.2N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 50.1N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 57.2N 25.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 61.8N 18.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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