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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-13 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center, and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt. The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is a little to the east of the previous track. The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-13 22:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.7, -109.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-13 22:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132040 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics