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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-13 22:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132040 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 6
2024-09-13 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-09-13 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 132040 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics