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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-13 22:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:49:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:49:54 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-13 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center, and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt. The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is a little to the east of the previous track. The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-13 22:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.7, -109.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics