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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 2
2024-09-12 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122043 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Corrected for rainfall statement ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is possible while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-12 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-12 22:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will continue to steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period. Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening. When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried as a remnant low for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics