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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-07-31 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 311433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Although the structure of Irwin remains well organized, deep convection has been on the decline during the past several hours due to the influences of cool, 24 deg C water and dry air. An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little to 45 kt. The intensity forecast is straightforward. Continued steady weakening is expected due to even cooler waters, and drier and more stable air along the path of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Irwin to degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipate by 72 hours. This forecast is an update of the previous one. Irwin is moving north-northwestward at 12 kt in the wake of Post-Tropical cyclone Hilary, and this motion is expected to continue for about another day. Thereafter, a slower motion toward the northwest is forecast when the shallow remnant low is steered by low-level southeasterly flow. The models remain tightly clustered and have changed little this cycle, so only minor adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 21.9N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.6N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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