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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-26 04:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260257 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 54.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 54.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.1N 52.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 35SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 38.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 40.1N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 41.4N 35.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 42.7N 29.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 54.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Helene Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-26 04:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 02:55:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-26 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260255 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Satellite images show that Helene has a well-organized appearance, with numerous convective banding features. A ragged-looking eye feature is also apparent. However, reports from both Air Force and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system suggest that the it lacks a well-defined inner core with a somewhat broad maximum wind field for now. The central pressure has dropped a little to around 972 mb. Given the slowly falling central pressure, the intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. Helene's structure and intensity will continue to be closely monitored by Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight and Thursday. The hurricane continues moving northward with an estimated initial motion of 360/08 kt. For the next couple of days, the steering scenario for this system remains basically unchanged from the earlier advisory. The flow between a mid-tropospheric trough over the east-central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should result in Helene accelerating northward to north-northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion will bring the center of Helene to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 24 hours. The official track forecast through landfall is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the corrected consensus guidance. After landfall, the trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone becomes a cutoff low, and Helene should turn leftward as it rotates around the low. In 3-4 days, the system should become a shallow extratropical cyclone within weaker steering currents. Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current, which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower- tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models show even more intensification than indicated here. Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are likely. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics