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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-26 04:58:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260258 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024 The non-tropical area of low pressure we have been monitoring to the northeast of Bermuda over the last day or so has become significantly better organized today, with deep central convection forming and now wrapping around a small surface circulation. While the system had previously been attached to an occluded frontal boundary to its northwest, recently received scatterometer data now shows that the circulation has fully detached form this boundary, and is producing winds of 40-45 kt in a small circular area embedded within the organizing convection. These structural changes indicate the the system has undergone and has completed tropical transition. Thus, the system is now being designated Tropical Storm Isaac this advisory, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the earlier scatterometer data. Isaac is moving just north of due east at 85/10 kt. This motion should continue with a gentle turn more east-northeastward over the next several days as the system is steered primarily by mid-level ridging present to its south. However, there does not appear to be a mid-latitude trough early on to help the storm to accelerate much over the next few days. The initial NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the simple and corrected consensus aids TCVN and HCCA. While Isaac is traversing only marginally warm waters, it is also still embedded within the base of an upper-level trough which has reduced tropospheric stability due to colder upper-level temperatures. This is partially why Isaac has been able to develop organized deep convection this evening. The shear is not anticipated to increase much over the next couple of days, which could allow for some gradual intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement the with HCCA and ECMWF forecasts and shows a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h, followed by gradual weakening after 72 h as sea-surface temperatures cool further and shear begins to increase more markedly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 37.1N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 37.1N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 37.3N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 38.8N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 40.1N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 41.4N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 42.7N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-26 04:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Isaac was located near 37.1, -54.1 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-26 04:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 54.1W ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM W OF THE AZORES ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. Isaac is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a general eastward to east-northeastward motion at a slightly faster speed is anticipated over the next several days. Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Isaac could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough are affecting portions of the coast of Bermuda and could spread into the Azores by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics