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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 62
2017-09-20 22:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory. Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is still producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of the circulation. Some of these outer bands are approaching the southern New England coastline. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. This estimate is also in fair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also showed that Jose has a very large wind field. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this evening, and should provide a better assessment of Jose's intensity. The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a trough over eastern Canada. This trough should cause Jose to move east-northeastward at a slower pace tonight. Thereafter, the trough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak steering currents. As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward beginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through the weekend. The models have trended a little to the west at the end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed suit. Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is expected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more days. These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual weakening trend during the next several days. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches in Nantucket as it passes offshore. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 39.6N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 39.6N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 39.5N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 39.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z 39.4N 71.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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