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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-27 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 368 WTNT41 KNHC 272035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Deep convection has increased and become more concentrated near the center of Joyce this afternoon. A cold dense overcast has developed and expanded over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone. As a result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have risen, and the initial intensity is brought up to 45 kt. This is consistent with a T3.0/45-kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, as well as a blend of recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates that range from 36-52 kt. Additional near-term strengthening is possible while Joyce remains in an environment of strong upper-level divergence and moderate shear over warm SSTs. However, the storm is forecast to encounter increasing shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days, which should induce a weakening trend later this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC intensity forecast peaks at 55 kt in 12 h, with gradual weakening shown thereafter based on the less favorable environmental conditions that are anticipated. Simulated satellite imagery from the latest ECMWF run shows Joyce maintaining organized convection through Monday, but the GFS suggests it could degenerate to a remnant low even sooner. This forecast shows Joyce degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low in 72 h and dissipating by day 5, but future timing changes may be necessary. The storm continues to move northwestward (305/11 kt) around the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two, along with a slower forward speed as the steering currents weaken. There is more spread in the track guidance thereafter, with some model disagreement about whether and how quickly the storm turns northward ahead of an upper trough over the central Atlantic. For now, the NHC track forecast is shifted slightly to the left and is a bit slower between 48-72 h, following the latest HCCA and and TVCA trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-09-27 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 272035 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-27 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Joyce was located near 18.6, -44.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics