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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-09-30 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 302039 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 0SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-30 19:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 301749 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, on newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper-level winds appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-30 19:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 301741 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Another area of low pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly offshore of southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican coast, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development while the system remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics