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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-25 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252038 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 300 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 The cloud pattern of Lester has become only slightly better organized than earlier today. Taking the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB leads to a current intensity estimate of 50 kt. An upper-level cyclonic shear axis just to the northwest of the storm is clearly evident in water vapor imagery, and this feature is somewhat impeding Lester's outflow to the north. Overall, however, the atmospheric and oceanic environment should be conducive for strengthening with low shear and a sufficiently warm ocean during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast shows Lester becoming a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional intensification after that time frame. Late in the forecast period, marginal SSTs should halt the strengthening process. The official intensity forecast is fairly close to the multi-model consensus, IVCN. The storm is slowing down a bit and the initial motion is about 295/9. A slight weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Lester is expected to cause some further deceleration during the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, a stronger ridge should induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and about in the middle of the dynamical guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.9N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.7N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.0N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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