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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-26 04:45:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260245 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Satellite images reveal that the cloud pattern has not changed very much during the past several hours, and deep convection is not as strong as earlier today. Some arc clouds have been moving away from the cyclone, suggesting that Lester is not intensifying at this time. This is confirmed by the latest Dvorak estimates which still lead to an intensity of 50 kt. Nevertheless, Lester's upper-level outflow is well established and, with low shear and warm waters in its future path, strengthening is in order. Thus, Lester is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. By the end of the forecast period, cooler waters should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is basically the same as the previous one. Lester has slowed down a little bit and is now moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The cyclone should resume a west- northwest track soon toward a current weakness of the ridge. However, in about 2 days, the ridge should amplify and build westward, and this pattern should steer Lester westward through the rest of the forecast period. Given that the steering currents are expected to be very well established, tracks models are in very good agreement. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus and has not deviated very much from the previous official prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.0N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.4N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.8N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.5N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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