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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-26 10:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260851 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 300 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016 While Lester continues to produce a large area of cold cloud tops, recent microwave imagery suggests that the storm is being affected by vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment that is displacing the convection mostly to the east and northeast of the center. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated 45-50 kt winds about 40 n mi northeast of the center, and based on this the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The microwave data show that Lester has moved westward for the past several hours, with the initial motion now 280/6. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward later today as it moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After 12-24 hours, Lester should resume a westward track with an increase in forward speed as the ridge strengthens and builds westward. The track model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope. The new forecast is a little to the south of the previous forecast based on the current position and motion. The dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease over the next 24 hours and remain low for the rest of the forecast period, which should allow Lester to again intensify. The forecast track keeps the cyclone over relatively warm water for about 72 hours, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during that time. Subsequently, the waters cool a little along the forecast track, and the intensity forecast thus shows some weakening. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, except slightly weaker during the first 24 hours due to the shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.3N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.4N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.4N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 17.5N 126.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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