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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-26 16:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 It appears that northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment is continuing to prevent Lester from strengthening. The deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to burst, but there is little evidence of banding features at this time. Subject Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt from SAB and TAFB, and the earlier ASCAT data suggests that the intensity was around 45 to 50 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt for this advisory. The shear is expected to decrease very soon, which favors some intensification while Lester remains over warm water during the next few days. Nearby dry air could occasionally interrupt the intensification process during this time, so only gradually strengthening is anticipated through 72 hours. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a more stable airmass near the track could cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period. Lester is moving westward or 280/6. A strong mid- to upper-level ridge centered well west of the Baja California is expected to remain intact through the middle of next week. This ridge should steer Lester westward at a little faster forward speed throughout the entire forecast period. The guidance is in very good agreement with this scenario, and the new NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.4N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.5N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.5N 127.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 132.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.2N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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