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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-02 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021454 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia has become less organized since the previous advisory, with satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level and mid-level centers have become decoupled. In addition, the coverage of deep convection has diminished significantly, and there are no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The initial intensity will be lowered to 35 kt based on the premise that these winds are still occurring over the Gulf of California. Lidia should continue to weaken as the center moves over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The NHC forecast will continue to show a remnant low at 72 h, but as noted in the previous advisory it is unclear whether this will be Lidia or another low pressure area that absorbs the remnants of Lidia. The initial motion is 315/10 along the south side a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. After that, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected due to interaction with a mid- to upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance. Despite the ongoing and forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone should spread over portions of the southwestern United States through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 27.9N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON COAST 12H 03/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 03/1200Z 30.2N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 32.1N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 33.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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