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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-17 10:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170848 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO. Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the next couple of days. Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the next several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these islands today. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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