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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-10-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072043 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 AFTER INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...NARDA APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A 1625 UTC SSMI/S PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN DEGRADED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT 285/13. NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HAVE LESS EFFECT ON NARDA WHILE IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT PASSES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LURKING TO THE NORTHWEST...THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW NARDA TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE U.S. WEST COAST TROUGH AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING... WITH THE SHEAR BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY CAUSING NARDA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM...BUT HIGHER THAN THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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