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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-07 10:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070852 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center has made landfall in mainland Mexico a short distance southeast of Bahia Kino. The overall cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat, with an erosion of deep convection over the northwestern quadrant of the circulation, and subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are below hurricane strength. Therefore the system has been downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm. With the center moving inland, rapid weakening will occur, however there is a possibility that Newton could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of extreme southeastern Arizona later today. The circulation is expected to dissipate on Thursday. The initial motion is northward, or 010/15 kt. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Newton should gradually curve to the northeast as it moves between the western periphery of a mid-level high and a broad trough to the north. The official forecast follows the multi-model consensus. The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will be spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico over the next day or so. These rains could cause flooding and mud slides. Consult statements from you local weather offices for possible warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.7N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 31.4N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0600Z 33.5N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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