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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-05 10:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050857 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Newton appears to be gradually strengthening. The tropical storm is producing a large area of deep convection, which is a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are close to 3.0/45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed estimate is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center has been challenging to locate overnight, but it appears that Newton is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward at a faster pace during the next day or two while it tracks along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. A turn to the north is expected beyond a couple of days when Newton rounds the ridge and moves into a pronounced weakness. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The new NHC forecast brings the center of Newton very close to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in 24 to 36 hours. Low shear, a moist environment, and very warm water should allow Newton to steadily strengthen until it reaches the Baja California peninsula. In fact, rapid intensification is a possibility as the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours. Based on the expected conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the guidance during the next day or two. After Newton passes the Baja peninsula, weakening should occur due to land interaction and an increase in vertical wind shear. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has extended the watches and warnings northward along the Baja California coastlines and the west coast of mainland Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.9N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 07/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 08/0600Z 31.2N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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