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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-09-07 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 A small patch of deep convection has been lingering just west of the center of Norbert during the last several hours. Although the cyclone is producing little deep convection, its circulation remains well established. An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on that data and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Norbert is currently over sea surface temperatures of around 25 C and is embedded in a stable air mass, as indicated by the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the west of the storm. These unfavorable conditions should cause Norbert to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and open into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and follows the global model guidance. Norbert is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion estimate is 300/7. A turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours as the cyclone becomes influenced by a deep-layer trough to the west of California. After that time, a turn to the northeast or east toward the Baja California peninsula is predicted when the remnant low becomes steered by the weak low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one is between the GFS and ECMWF models. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 26.5N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 27.2N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 28.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 28.7N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 29.5N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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