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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-09-08 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the past several hours. Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone soon. Based on a slow spin down of the maximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Since the system has a substantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to dissipate. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by the time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula. The cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the initial motion is now 320/6. A mid-level trough near California should cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days. By 48-72 hours, the weak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and essentially splits the difference between the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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