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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-16 10:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160843 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center. A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of the Baja peninsula. Based on these data and the possibility of stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Odile should gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation continues to interact with land. Odile is forecast to become a tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low within 48 hours. The new forecast now calls for dissipation within 3 days. Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid-level trough near southern California. The latest NHC track is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA 36H 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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