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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-09-16 22:49:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162049 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm warning along the west coast of Baja California. The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE. Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts. As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California, little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO 36H 18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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