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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-09-17 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170238 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the center of circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California, it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico on Wednesday. After that occurs, weakening should be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one. Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues to be northward or about 360/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn toward the north-northeast over the next day or so. The official track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory, and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Moisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours. This, along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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