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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-09-17 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170849 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 The center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of California, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma, Arizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection is now occurring in the northeastern semicircle. This is likely due to a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. Little change in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico later today. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with Odile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely dissipate shortly thereafter. The initial motion is now 015/5. A mid-level ridge extending from southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn toward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of Odile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of California, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before dissipation. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. A large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing northwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States. This, along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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