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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-09-17 16:56:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171456 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt. A strong ridge extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday. The new forecast track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind over the Gulf of California. The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States over the next couple of days. These heavy rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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