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Tropical Storm ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-09-16 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2016 Several microwave images have arrived since the previous advisory, revealing that the low-level center of Orlene is displaced to the east of a small area of persistent deep convection. Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT vary greatly, mainly due to the sensitivity of the Dvorak technique to the location of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been conservatively lowered by 10 knots to 55 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak estimates and an 1823 UTC ASCAT pass. The ASCAT pass only showed a maximum of about 45 kt, so this may still be a little high. Orlene continues to move into a very dry and thermodynamically stable environment, highlighted by a field of stratocumulus clouds that wrap around the western half of the tropical storm. All of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that this hostile environment will cause steady weakening. The intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory, but is a little higher than the latest intensity consensus out of respect to the GFS which shows more gradual weakening. The GFS and HWRF suggest that the cyclone will lose all deep convection and become post-tropical within 96 hours, which is reflected in the official forecast. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast, aside from a slight eastward adjustment of the initial position. The global models remain in good agreement that the mid-level ridge located to the north of Orlene will steer the tropical storm westward over the next three days. After 72 hours, low-level easterlies should continue to steer the remnant low generally westward at a slightly slower forward speed. The track forecast remains very close to the multi-model ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.7N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.4N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.3N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 20.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z 20.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky
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