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Tropical Storm ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-09-16 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161450 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Convection associated with Orlene has decreased significantly during the past six hours, with only a small area of shower activity remaining southwest of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of marginal sea surface temperatures and entrainment of very dry air should cause continued weakening through the forecast period even though Orlene is in a light vertical shear environment. The intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours. If the convection does not return, both of these events could happen earlier. The initial motion is 270/10. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a weakness in the ridge. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.8N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.0N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 20.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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