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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-16 22:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 The system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection near the low-level center for the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the initial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm. Otis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low wind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength. Beyond that time, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the expected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now forecast to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the higher initial intensity. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models remain in agreement that the storm should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is predicted. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short term to account for the more westward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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