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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-09-17 04:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Convection has increased near the center of Otis since the last advisory, and an AMSR-2 pass around 2030 UTC indicated that the tropical storm was beginning to develop an inner-core. A consensus of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 40 kt. Otis is expected to remain over moderate SSTs and within a low-shear environment for the next 24 to 36 h. Given that the storm finally appears to be supporting persistent deep convection near the center, at least a little more intensification seems likely, and this is supported by the statistical-dynamical models. After about 48 h, lower SSTs and some increase in shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but still shows Otis becoming a remnant low by 96 h. Otis has continued to move very slowly westward, and has not yet turned northward, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. All of the global models still indicate that this turn is imminent, but regardless of when exactly it occurs, little overall movement is expected for the next 72 h. Beyond that time, a faster west-southwest track is still anticipated as the remnants of Otis become steered primarily by the low-level tradewinds. Little change overall has been made to the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 17.9N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 18.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.3N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.1N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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